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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It often serves as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the largest improvement is handed the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or just the greatest surprise.

However the current race is distinctly different. The list of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division champions declining and recent underperformers rising together. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in this wild and fun year, he's up against five other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper system, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his special talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of improvising. It is an offense built solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to conjure big plays from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this is not a normal year!

Where his case comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

After an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed after that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him just one spot ahead of peers.

Still